GothamSchools — daily independent reporting on NYC public schools

Most city teachers hired since the fall of 2007 will lose their jobs if current draconian budget cut predictions come through. But that cutoff date could change — and where it falls will determine not just which teachers are laid off, but which neighborhoods lose the most teachers.

State law and the city union contract dictate that the newest teachers must be laid off first. Because of that system, schools and neighborhoods with the most new teachers — hard-to-staff districts with high teacher turnover and areas that have seen jumps in their enrollment — would take the nastiest blows.

Right now, it’s still unclear exactly how many teachers will have to be laid off as the city waits on a state budget that is six weeks overdue. The exact number of layoffs dictates how many years and months of hiring the city will have to wipe out.

In March, when the city was projecting a worst-case-scenario of 8,500 layoffs, Chancellor Joel Klein outlined projections of how many teachers each community school district would lose. Under the latest estimates, which call for 4,400 pink slips, the Bronx would still be hardest hit. But neighborhoods in Manhattan — whose new teachers are on average slightly less new — are seeing greater relief. (more…)