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MARGIN NOTES
November 4, 2009
A look at how public school parents cast their ballots
Mayor Michael Bloomberg won re-election last night by slightly more than 50,000 votes, beating opponent William Thompson by a narrow margin in an election with one of the lowest turn-outs in the city’s recent history, the New York Times reported this morning. The Times also has an interesting break-down of exit polling information. It includes a couple of figures about how New Yorkers with a stake in the schools voted:
- A quarter of voters reported that they have children in public schools. Of those voters, 55 percent cast their ballot for Thompson, with 43 percent going for Bloomberg.
- Turnout came in at around 1.1 million voters, so that works out to be about 151,000 parents casting their votes for Thompson and around 118,000 parents voting for Bloomberg.
- Around 16 percent of voters, or about 176,000 people, said that education was the one issue that mattered most in deciding how they voted. That group went to Bloomberg, 57 percent to 40 percent.
In the Daily News, Juan Gonzalez posits that the low turnout signals widespread dissatisfaction with Bloomberg’s accomplishments in office, and predicts that several of the mayor’s accomplishments will not carry into a third term, including education reform:
The mayor’s biggest claim has been improving the school system. But as more independent reviews come out of his reforms - from charter schools to improved test scores - proof mounts that much of the progress is smoke and mirrors. City test scores could prove to be as reliable as all those Triple A-rated subprime mortgages Bloomberg’s Wall Street friends peddled.
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November 4th, 2009 11:24 am
The census data state that only about a third of NYC households have children to begin with, so it doesn’t surprise that only about 25% of voters would state they have children in public schools.
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November 4th, 2009 1:36 pm
With this kind of summary reporting — and without the cross tabs — it’s hard to know what to make of this, though I have some real questions.
(Of course, an reporting or summarizing a poll’s finding should include the sample size and/or “margin of error.” If the original does not include that information, the write up should mention that fact.)
* I wonder if how parent rated the importance of education in their voting.
* I wonder how parents who rated education their top priority compared to non-parents who rated education their top prioity.
* Given the surprisingly close results, I wonder if Gotham wants to revisit its analysis that a UFT endorsement would not have mattered enough to sway the election.
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