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Laughed Out of the Room

I missed Secretary of Education Arne Duncan’s speech at Teachers College on Thursday because I was working on his behalf in Washington.  I was one of about 17 researchers on a panel evaluating a batch of research proposals on school reform for the Institute of Education Sciences (IES), the research arm of the federal Department of Education.  IES seeks to identify malleable factors (e.g., education programs, policies and practices) that can improve education outcomes.  To do so, IES has developed a progressive goal structure for research projects.  Goal One projects are exploratory, and intended to inform the development of interventions by examining existing relationships between policies and practices and educational outcomes.  Goal Two projects are intended to develop innovative educational interventions that can be implemented in school settings, and to collect some preliminary data on the educational outcomes observed in a pilot implementation of the intervention.  Goal Three projects use rigorous methods to examine the efficacy of fully-developed interventions, as well as the feasibility of implementation, in at least one local site.  And finally, Goal Four projects attempt to evaluate whether interventions proven to be successful in a local site, with help from the program developers, can be scaled up to be effective under different conditions, and without the direct involvement of the program developers.  (There’s also a Goal Five, for research on measurement, but that’s a different animal.)  Over the years that IES has had this a goal structure, more than 70%  of the projects funded under Goals One through Four have been Goal One or Goal Two projects;  about one-quarter have been Goal Three projects, and only 3% have been Goal Four projects. 

The reasons for this are pretty clear.  To be a good prospect for scaling up in a Goal Four project, an intervention must previously have been shown to be effective in at least one site, using rigorous methods for assessing cause-and-effect relationships.  Relatively few interventions meet this threshold, because most policies and programs don’t have educationally meaningful effects, even if it seems like they ought to.  Similarly, projects that are good candidates for Goal Three funding must previously have shown at least some evidence of effects on student outcomes in pilot studies in which the intervention received a tentative tryout, but not a full-blown test using rigorous experimental or quasi-experimental research methods.

I was struck by a thought experiment:  what if my panel of distinguished researchers (the other members, at least) had been presented with a proposal based on the Race to the Top criteria that Secretary Duncan talked about at Teachers College, and which have been acclaimed by opinion writers such as Nick Kristof and David Brooks, as well as the editorial page writers for major newspapers in New York City and around the country?  The draft Race to the Top criteria for funding state proposals provide incentives for linking teachers to their students’ standardized test scores, and in his remarks on Thursday, Secretary Duncan drew attention to Race to the Top incentives for states and districts to link student performance to the teacher preparation programs from which students’ teachers had emerged.  Only Louisiana currently does this, the Secretary said.  What if a scale-up proposal for this intervention had been presented to a panel charged with applying the IES criteria to evaluate its fundability?

It would have been laughed out of the room.

Not literally, of course;  the panel members take their work very seriously, and seek to provide feedback to applicants as well as to advise the staff of IES about the merit of the proposals.  But a key criterion for the viability of Goal Three and especially Goal Four proposals is evidence that the intervention has had a positive effect on student outcomes.  There is to date no evidence that the implementation of longitudinal data systems linking teachers and teacher preparation programs to student achievement outcomes has actually improved student performance.

Could such data systems result in improved outcomes for students?  Sure.  However, I have yet to see a full-blown theory of change specifying exactly how the implementation of longitudinal data systems would result in better outcomes, and even theories that seem quite plausible often don’t pan out.  Developing a theory of change would be an essential feature of a Goal Two development and innovation project.

And that, in my view, is where longitudinal data systems linking teachers and teacher preparation programs to student outcomes belong.  As innovative pilot projects developed and refined in local settings over a few years—not as projects rushed to scale in states across the country despite the complete lack of evidence that they will improve student achievement.

  • http://www.shermandorn.com Sherman Dorn

    First, thank you for (again) explaining the insides of the intervention research within IES. (I hope that Easton is successful in institutionalizing that through the next half-decade.)

    Looking at the connect-teacher-ed-to-student-test-data in a research text, of course you’re right. On the other hand, the idea of looking at student success in this way is something to address political needs, part of which are ideological and part of which are rooted in legitimate needs to hold K-12 and education schools accountable. The latter is what I have to pay attention to. One question that always accompanies criticisms of political policy tools is always going to be, “Okay, what do you suggest?” And “nothing” is not going to work as an answer!

    Especially with public programs, there’s a pragmatic question of which evil is least. I don’t know about TC, but many of the larger teacher-ed institutions in the country have been repeatedly intervened in/pressured for political reasons, through either overt political attacks (as in the Ross Perot commission in Texas) or through semi-bureaucratic moves such as churning certification requirements applied to college-based programs (which usually don’t apply to ABCTE and other alt-cert programs).

    I’m inclined to give programs such as Noell’s work in Louisiana much more leeway than you are, not because it’s been demonstrated to have an effect on student success but because it is considerably better than the alternatives I see in front of me. I know of one college of ed where the dean is hoping that post-graduation surveys of alumni and their supervisors will suffice to show that we care sufficiently about outcomes. I think that might work for one or two years, but that’s it.

  • http://curious2.typepad.com Ken

    Thanks for the interesting post.

    Is there any evidence that our current extremely-expensive, anti-competitive, politically-protected, time-consuming, talent-discouraging traditional teacher preparation programs are effective? Would they get laughed out of the room?

    Why not have the government get out of the way, provide oversight to fight fraud and incompetence, and let educators experiment to find the optimal solutions?

  • Aaron Pallas

    Sherman: I don’t mind acknowledging pragmatic political realities. But you know as well as I how easily policymakers slip into “research shows…” mode to justify political choices that have no research underpinnings. The rhetoric surrounding data systems is as much about improving outcomes as it is about “legitimate” needs to hold public institutions accountable. Why else would there be so much talk about getting rid of the “weak” teachers/programs, or having the “ineffective” teachers/programs learn from the “effective” ones? In the absence of a research base connecting policies and practices to student outcomes, political claims that “it’s all about the kids” ring awfully hollow.

    Ken: Setting aside the adjectives, which are irrelevant to the issue, I’d say that it’s always difficult to assess the efficacy of a “full-coverage” program or policy for which there is no comparative condition that represents the absence of the program. The same is true for evaluating the effectiveness of a host of American social, political and economic institutions that have represented “the way we do things here” for a long time. I’m certainly not arguing that this is the best of all possible education worlds. Rather, what I am calling for is building a base of evidence on the effects of well-designed innovations, rather than declaring on the basis of hope, faith or ideology that we should scale up untested innovations because we know that they’ll be good for kids.

  • Nelson Smith

    Have you looked at the Investing in Innovation (i3) guidelines as well? The structure is somewhat similar to those of IES.

  • True Believer

    I don’t see how such data systems could result in improved outcomes for students, nor do I think this is the real goal of Duncan’s idea. This is teacher education bashing, pure and simple. Duncan would like to use data in this way to argue for the closure of teacher and principal preparation programs that, he would argue, are not doing enough to raise student test scores. The reason valid researchers would have “laughed [it] out of the room” is that just as it is ridiculous to argue for merit pay based on a very simplistic and mediocre measure of student achievement (test scores) so too is it ridiculous to say that the purpose of teacher preparation programs is to raise pupils’ test scores. Aside from concerns for the morally defensible means to those ends, and all the logistical nightmares of states’ tests, their timing, and reporting, we want teachers to also be prepared to handle the social and emotional needs of children, to work in partnerships with parents and the community, and to be intellectuals and life-long learners. But RTT funds are a mighty big carrot, and the states are in dire need. I think we are in for some scary times.

  • http://curious2.typepad.com Ken

    Thanks Aaron.

    We probably disagree with respect to process. I think we would have a better result if the government weren’t in the business of deciding which innovations to scale up. The government’s stranglehold on innovation is a big factor in the dreadful productivity gains in public education.

    Meanwhile, I think our current full-coverage teacher preparation programs are based largely on some combination of hope, faith, and ideology, along with a huge dose of special interest politics. These unproven but clearly costly programs shouldn’t be required while we wait for the government to be comfortable that a better alternative has been proven.

  • Michael M.

    Ken,
    I can’t help but compare the “innovation’s always good” approach with… the FDA.

    Frankly, I want to know something works before trying it on my kids.

  • http://curious2.typepad.com Ken

    Michael,
    The FDA is a pretty controversial organization, but even if you love what the FDA does, their work isn’t comparable to a set of regulations that are hugely expensive to adhere to without any compelling evidence that they accomplish anything at all positive. Some would argue that on balance the FDA is destructive because of costs and delays, but at least their output is based on evidence.

  • Michael M.

    Ken,
    Philosophical difference alert: I believe that the guvmint’s job IS to filter out the speculative from the proven beneficial. That goes DOUBLE when it’s taxpayer DOLLARS being speculated with.

    You state, “…government’s stranglehold on innovation is a big factor in the dreadful productivity gains in public education.”

    I’m all for reduced waste and increased efficiency, but such are secondary to whether or not one believes government should even be in the business of ascertaining whether “innovation” is indeed “productive” when it comes to public DOLLARS in public education.

    And yes, I’m talkin about charters. And so, I believe, are you.

    It ain’t all about the mean guvmint won’t let the parents — or the investors — have more charters.

    The FDA has a stranglehold. The Patent Office has a stranglehold. The FAA has a stranglehold.

    I think America is coming around to the idea that the Free Market doesn’t self-regulate well, and when it does, it’s not for the protection and benefit of the consumers.

    Is your objection to the FDA based on efficiency, or that government shouldn’t be in the business of telling consumers what is efficacious?

    Our children — your guinnea pigs? Sorry, no.

  • GGW

    Aaron,

    Just so I understand your construct:

    Policy A and Policy B.

    Policy A is new and therefore has really never been measured. Policy B has, though not in an optimal way, and so far, no positive correlation with achievement.

    Each is plausible in the eyes of supporters, and unlikely in the eyes of skeptics.

    You think we should hold A to a HIGHER standard than B?

    I.e, you laugh out of the room the idea of scaling up A, but you believe we should continue B?

  • http://curious2.typepad.com Ken

    GGW,

    I love the way you put this and I have the same question. I would add one thing:

    Policy B is, without argument, hugely expensive in terms of time and money.

  • Michael M.

    Add to the above two that Policy A and Policy B are not without impact on each other.

    Policy A is, without argument (wink), implemented at some harm to Policy B.

  • http://MoreThoughtful.blogspot.com ceolaf wolfhelm

    Ken,

    Nice to see you commenting, again. But, as usual, I disagree with you.

    The issue you are missing here is scaling something up — what Aaron is writing about here — is about changing the status quo. We are not starting from zero, of a hobbsian state. We are starting from what we have, and trying to figure out what we should change.

    You appear to be advocating an end to licensing requirements for teachers, which is itself an intervention. Where is the evidence that such a thing would help students? You would scale that up nationally without a single smaller experiment.

    I suppose that we could look at private schools, which lack certification requirements, but — as you know — they have never welcomed the kinds of comparisons that might control for demographic differences between student bodies.

    So, I have to ask why you would want to end teachers preparation/certification without ending the same for doctors, lawyers, architects and pilots? I would understand an objection to the quality of our preparation programs and the low bar that certification represents, but your are not arguing for increasing that quality (e.g. by requiring FAR more hours of supervised work in the classroom) or raising that bar.

    Let me try to go through your reasons.

    “extremely-expensive”: Compared to preparation in other professions? A 15 month program? I couldn’t disagree more. The problem is that we are so worried about cost that we do not add an entire year — or more — of highly supervised work in the classroom before granting certification. Where are the residencies and requirements for experience before certification? Why do YOU think we lack them? Everything I’ve ever read about say that are expensive and the challenge of programs with them is to find funding for them. The federal government support medical residencies, and there is no such support for teachers.

    anti-competitive: that’s an ideological argument, I think. There’s no evidence anywhere that competition improves education. Charters are not better, as a group, than non-charter schools — except perhaps in states with strict caps, which CLEARLY suppress competition. Some fields simply are not completive (at least on quality), probably due to the high cost and high reluctance to change providers. We see that in medicine, we see that in architecture, we see that piloting. And its pretty clear that we see that in education. In fact, it is the absence of competitive market dynamics that makes government regulation so important, as there is no free-market driver on quality in those settings.

    politically-protected: Well, that’s not actually an argument against. It’s just a complaint. I’m really not sure about about how preparation programs are politically protected, as you intend it. Preparation program accreditation has nothing to do with the government, and it is the accreditation process that shapes these programs to which you object so strenuously.

    time-consuming: Actually, I find preparation programs to be far too short. No one really complains that law school is too time consuming. No one complains that their pilot had to spend too much time getting certified and trained. And it takes them a lot longer than 15 months.

    talent-discouraging: I actually think that this is the least sensible of your objections. Does law school discourage the “talented” from going into the law? Does med school keep the “talented” from going into law? Does divinity school or other priestly training keep the “talented” from going into the clergy? If the rewards are great enough, the talented will invest to get to the rewards. Researchers like John Willette have found that those with higher paying alternatives are least likely to go into teaching, and more likely to leave the field. One of my wife’s new bosses used to be a teacher and then went into the law, despite the requirement that she spend three more years in school.

    I get that YOU don’t like the programs. I get that YOU would prefer an unregulated market, simply because you prefer unregulated markets. Not because unregulated markets actually work better or anything, just because of your ideological beliefs. You don’t need to make up such objections to regulations and departures from free markets. Just state your preferences for their reasons.

    As usual, I don’t agree with you or see strong reasoning behind your suggestions. But I am glad to see that you’re back.

  • http://curious2.typepad.com Ken

    Thanks ceolaf,

    It’s good to see that you have retained the ability to read my mind and, therefore, know what I am really trying to say. :)

    I disagree with almost all of your comments, but I like your new alias.

  • http://stuartbuck.blogspot.com Stuart Buck

    There is to date no evidence that the implementation of longitudinal data systems linking teachers and teacher preparation programs to student achievement outcomes has actually improved student performance.

    This is stacking the deck. Data tracking isn’t an “intervention” in any meaningful sense; it’s not itself altering anyone’s educational experience.  Rather, it’s just collecting data to find out whether ACTUAL interventions — such as, say, teacher education programs of differing types — are working or not. And now that you mention it, teacher education programs don’t meet the Goal 4 criteria right now.  So shouldn’t you be in favor of collecting that sort of data?  

  • http://stuartbuck.blogspot.com Stuart Buck

    That first paragraph was a quotation.  

  • http://www.knowalliance.net Knowledge Alliance

    Maintain High Standards, but Reallocate Resources

    How much of an impact does evidence make at the Department of Education?

    In the context of the Department of Education and the latest i3 grants– it’s a heavy weight. Recently Aaron Pallas made clear that an idea does not stand to be scaled up if there is not an immense amount of proof behind it.

    The Investing in Innovation Fund, known as i3, shares this high standard. Successful applicants would receive funds to support local efforts to start or expand research-based innovative programs that help close the achievement gap and improve outcomes for students.

    Developing education innovations that work is difficult and chancy. It is quite possible that the pool of applicants meeting the requirements for Scale-Up grants (superb programs with the potential to be brought to scale) will be quite small. Thus, one could expect that the Department will allocate the majority of the grant awards to go to proposals that meet the requirements for Development (for promising but still unproven initiatives) and Validation (somewhat proven initiatives ready to grow at the State and Regional levels) grants.

    In particular, the Development grant category represents a tremendous opportunity for the Department to develop new ideas based on research that could foster continuous improvement to the lowest performing schools and Districts in our public education system.

    http://knowledge-ablesource.blogspot.com/

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