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Mayoral candidates Thompson and Bloomberg have so far avoided the most important failing of New York City’s public schools: Under new state standards, a third of today’s high school graduates will soon be ineligible for diplomas. The so-called Local Diploma, requiring a 55 on Regents exams, is being phased out and only Regents-endorsed diplomas, requiring a score of 65 or better, will be issued to the Class of 2012.

The graduation time bomb brings two issues into stark relief. The first, difficult enough to absorb, is that every year over 10,000 more New York City residents will enter the job market (college largely off-limits to them) without even the entry-level requirement accorded by a high school diploma. The second is the diminished meaning of current Regents standards and the political pressure for further decline in order to accommodate this explosion of almost-grads.

Increased Regents standards have been on the state agenda for many years, as documented by the February 2009 New York City Coalition for Educational Justice report, “Looming Crisis or Historic Opportunity?” That study and State Education Department data reveal that not only are about a third of 4-year diplomas “Local” (excluding IEP and GED diplomas which are not exit degrees) but that the percentage rises to almost 40% for students graduating in 6 years. None of those students would graduate under the new standard.

These dire numbers mask a greater tragedy about to befall Latino and Black students. The New York City Department of Education states that currently Black students have a 55% graduation rate and that 40% of these students earn only a Local Diploma. The graduation rate for Latinos is slightly lower, with the ratios similar to Black students’. By comparison, graduation rates for White and Asian students, while still inadequate, approximate 75% with Local Diplomas amounting to 12% for Asians and 15% for Whites. Since these data record 4-year rates and Black and Latino students disproportionately take 5 or 6 years to graduate, when Local Diploma rates are highest, the final cohort figures are likely to be even gloomier. Overlapping rates for English language learners (40% overall, over 50% of these Local Diplomas) and students in special education (25% graduation, 70% Local) are even more dismal.

This impending disaster is dispiriting enough. But it merely reveals the more dire problem: that our children are graduating without the subject mastery necessary for college and careers. Regents diplomas are subject to the same strong suspicion that they, like other state tests, are subject to substantial score inflation. Erik W. Robelen recently reported in Education Week about “Questions Raised on New York Test System’s Reliability,” citing GothamSchools’ Aaron Pallas and researchers Daniel Koretz and Diane Ravitch. Steve Koss, a former New York City math teacher, has published telling critiques of the key Regents Math A and Algebra exams. All of the critiques echo widespread dissatisfaction with the exams’ scaled scores, in-school grading, and “unraveling” of specific test administrations.

This has left John Garvey, a former City University dean, to conclude that “there is no clear standard for high school student achievement on the Regents exams that could even be compared with a standard for college readiness.” His Annenberg Institute study, “Are New York City’s Public Schools Preparing Students for Success in College,” found that only 7.5% of high school graduates had taken all the recommended high school courses considered necessary for college preparation and that 70% of students entering CUNY’s community colleges require remedial courses since they fail placement exams in reading, writing, or math.

Look around. The bomb has already exploded. For all the talk of accountability, we are living in a city without honest educational standards. Even those with diplomas are often hard-pressed to function according to commonly accepted levels of college and career readiness. With appropriate elimination of the Local Diploma and pressure on new Education Commissioner David Steiner to end the politicized upward drift of test scores, the reality of this devastation should become clearer.

Picking up the pieces and rebuilding will be the number one education job of the next mayoral term.