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NUMBERS GAME

August 5, 2009

Howard Wolfson on city test scores: “The numbers don’t lie”

by Anna Phillips, at 11:19 am

Mayor Bloomberg’s chief spokesman for his reelection campaign, Howard Wolfson, brushed aside claims that the city’s test scores and graduation rates are inflated in an appearance on NY1′s “Road to City Hall” last night.

“If we can’t talk about the data, then why are we even having a conversation?” he said.

Wolfson came to talk about the mayor’s new transit initiative, but he ended up spending much of the interview discussing the mayor’s education record, which is shaping up to be a centerpiece of his campaign. Wolfson only become animated when host Dominic Carter noted that some critics believe that the city and state have found ways to artificially inflate the numbers.

“I mean, yes, they can say crime rate really isn’t low, you’re cooking the books. Test scores are not dramatically higher, you’re cooking the books. Yes, you can say that about anything. I can say that about the stratospheric ratings that you enjoy every night, oh, you’re cooking the books. The fact is, the numbers are what they are,” Wolfson said.

Carter prodded Wolfson with an example of numbers that do lie, citing times when medical examiners have been encouraged to withhold death reports until the following year, lowering the city’s murder rate in key election cycles.

“The numbers don’t lie,” Wolfson responded. “If that’s the case that the comptroller wants to make, he may be willing to do that. He certainly is free to do that.”

Wolfson also compared the mayor’s record to that of mayoral hopeful Bill Thompson’s five years as president of the city’s Board of Education, saying that the city’s test scores had shown marked improvement under Bloomberg. Thompson has called the comparison unfair, as he did not have the centralized power that came with mayoral control.

“They’re two different periods of time, but anyone can go and look at the numbers and the numbers are vastly different,” Wolfson said.

“I would put it this way very simply to every voter out there: if you think that the schools were better under Bill Thompson’s leadership at the board of education, you should vote for him. If you think, though, that the schools are better now that Michael Bloomberg has taken over, you should vote for him,” Wolfson said.”

The Thompson and Bloomberg campaigns spent much of last week trading jabs through their spokesmen. The following chart comparing education data during Thompson’s days on the Board of Education to Bloomberg’s time in office, came from the Bloomberg campaign last week. Yesterday, Village Voice reporter Wayne Barrett reported that the firm the Department of Education hired to audit their graduation data only validated the department’s numbers and didn’t investigate the information behind the transcripts.image002

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  • Michael M.

    Re ““If we can’t talk about the data, then why are we even having a conversation?” he said.”

    Indeed, many of us WOULD like to talk about the data. As in whether the data are (HT to skoolboy) MEANINGFUL !!!

    Unspun:
    “If we can’t ACCEPT THE DATA AT FACE VALUE, I’m going to collect my marbles and go home.”
    There, fixed it.

    Wolfson is paid to crow about the sunrise, so his boss can take credit for it.

  • Pogue

    Man, I wish Wolfson would look at actual attendance and lateness numbers throughout NYC high schools. He’ll find that “numbers don’t lie”, it’s just what numbers you choose to ignore.

  • Michael M.

    Here’s some more numbers that don’t lie:

    Per Quinnipiac via NBCNewYork…
    July 28, Bloomberg leads Thompson 47-37, a gap of 10%.
    Last month? Bloomberg led Thompson 54-32, a gap of 22%.

    (Margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.)

    Note that with a 10% gap, only 5% have to change their minds…

    Also,
    “Voters are also getting fed up with the mayor’s campaign spending, which may help explain the shift. Sixty-one percent of voters agree Bloomberg’s spending is overkill – up from 56 percent last month, the poll found.”
    http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/politics/Thompson-Cuts-Bloombergs-Lead-in-Half-Poll-.html

    Bloomberg’s a take-no-prisoners kind of guy. He’s shooting for a full 100%.

    P.S. Did Carter quiz Wolfson re Bloomberg’s SlushFundGate?

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-356-SF-Education-Examiner Caroline

    Oh, this is just what Edison Schools used to do — deja vu for us Edison followers!

    “Village Voice reporter Wayne Barrett reported that the firm the Department of Education hired to audit their graduation data only validated the department’s numbers and didn’t investigate the information behind the transcripts.”

    To explain: Back in its heyday, Edison Schools hired the RAND research firm to analyze its results. During the several years RAND was doing the research, Edison also had RAND do just just that kind of “audit” on the bogus and falsified achievement reports Edison released every year — verify the hard numbers, but not the information behind the numbers.

    Then Edison would routinely claim that RAND had verified the reports. For that matter, Edison and its supporters generally claimed RAND had verified every OTHER lie Edison told during that time too — quite a goodly number. RAND patiently issued denials whenever it was asked.

    Of course, the Bloomberg administration does include some of the same con artists who were involved in the Edison scam, so it should be no surprise that they’re engaging in the same shenanigans. The lies only prop them up for so long, though, as Edison learned.

    The ultimate RAND report, by the way, was the old “mixed results” finding. Reportedly, it took several years past the initial target date to issue the report partly because of tough negotiations with Edison, which funded the report, over the language.

    (
    Edison is trying to make a comeback, though — I’m proposing that its corporate motto be “Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me” and have blogged about it here:

    http://www.examiner.com/x-356-SF-Education-Examiner~y2009m7d31-Edison-Schools-Its-baaaaack-and-bringing-with-it-innovations-like-child-labor
    )

  • Michael M.

    Here’s some more numbers that don’t lie:

    Per Quinnipiac via NBCNewYork…
    July 28, Bloomberg leads Thompson 47-37, a gap of 10%.
    Last month? Bloomberg led Thompson 54-32, a gap of 22%.

    (Margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.)

    Note that with a 10% gap, only 5% have to change their minds…

    Also,
    “Voters are also getting fed up with the mayor’s campaign spending, which may help explain the shift. Sixty-one percent of voters agree Bloomberg’s spending is overkill – up from 56 percent last month, the poll found.”

    Bloomberg’s a take-no-prisoners kind of guy. He’s shooting for a full 100%.

    P.S. Did Carter quiz Wolfson re Bloomberg’s SlushFundGate?

  • Smith

    More importantly, Howard Wolfson doesn’t lie. His integrity is unimpeachable.

  • J. Israel

    If standardized test scores are up exponentially all over the state, then how can anyone point to NYC gains as anything special with a straight face? If the former Democrat now “gun for hire” Mr. Wolfson and his beloved Republican mayor are so confident in their numbers then why not have the Regents exams graded independently, not at the by the schools where they are administered? In mini-schools (small high schools) the very teachers who teach American History for example, then grade their own students’ Regents essays. Teachers who are under pressure to produce high passing rates and operate under the fear that if their numbers aren’t high their school might be closed. Forget the fact the principals are paid bonus based upon these numbers. What happens is that the kids pass, the school’s numbers improve and the students are not ready for college or life.

  • J. Israel

    The fact is, the numbers are what they are,” Wolfson said. This sounds like something Karl Rove would say. What a surprise since Mr. Wolfson works or worked for FOX.

  • Serena

    J. Israel asks the right question. As a teacher in a supposedly good school, I can tell you that it is a fraud. Our students take a practice test in May, and if they don’t pass,t hey are not allowed to take the Regents or RCT. This sometimes means 1/3 to 1/2 or more of the students who should be taking the exam aren’t.

    More importantly, with enough prep, students can guess or remember enough to pick the right answer on multiple choice questions on some exams, which dont change that much. But they don’t really understand what they mean or the backbround or context. If they were studying and working as diligently as they should, they wouldnt have a problem passing most exams–some have been dumbed down in recent years.

    60% of our kids who go to college flunk or drop out in the lst year or term–they can not handle the reading and writing and self-discipilne requirements. Prince doesn’t really discipline, just says teachers aren’t teaching the proper way if kids act up–which means that for 1o or 12 years or more no one knew how to teach? It’s a fraud. Teachers get fired if too many kids fail–it’s all about looking good in the mumbers. Stop the principal’s academy which lets people who have never taught be principals.

  • victoria fagan

    what is the comprehensive plan to address children with aspergders in this school system under mayor bloomberg

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